Greater Vancouver Real Estate Market Update – November 2024

Predicting the direction of the Greater Vancouver real estate market is challenging. Much like Bitcoin, it can surge quickly and unpredictably. Last year, we saw a significant uptick in activity, especially for properties under $2 million, with multiple offers being the norm across many cities. However, since May 24, the market has cooled down, and we will need to wait until spring 2025 to determine whether we will see a repeat of last year’s market behavior. Two key factors influencing the market right now are:

1. China’s Economic Struggles – With China’s economy facing difficulties, fewer buyers from the region are active in our market.

2. Iranian Market Slowdown – Many Persian buyers are waiting for better conditions in Iran to sell their properties and invest in Vancouver, but the real estate market in Iran remains sluggish.

November Market Update:

The market in Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley picked up in October and November compared to September. More properties that had been on the market for an extended period are now seeing successful sales. However, as is typical, the real estate market tends to slow down between November and February due to the holidays and people’s reluctance to move around Christmas time.

Despite this seasonal slowdown, there are a few positive developments that could influence the market:

• Interest Rates: We expect further drops in interest rates, which should impact variable-rate mortgages. Next rate announcement is Dec 11, 2024.

• New Government Policies:

  • The price limit for insured mortgages has increased from $1 million to $1.5 million.

  • Eligibility for 30-year mortgage amortizations is now extended to all first-time homebuyers and buyers of new builds.

However, there are also several factors that may pose challenges for the market:

• Rental Market Decline: Falling rent prices could discourage investors from entering or staying in the market.

• Temporary Visa Expirations: The $5 million temporary visa holders will be required to leave Canada by next year, potentially reducing demand in the rental market.

• Increased Inventory: Many new high-rise developments are nearing completion, which will increase the supply of apartments and potentially shift the balance of the market.

Market Strength: Sales-to-Active Ratio (SAR):

To assess the health of the market, we look at the Sales-to-Active Ratio (SAR) for both detached and attached properties in various cities. A higher SAR indicates a stronger market, with more homes selling relative to available listings. Here's what the SAR indicates:

• Balanced Market: 12% < SAR < 20%

• Buyer’s Market: SAR < 12%

• Seller’s Market: SAR > 20%

In summary, the market has shown some positive momentum heading into the end of the year, with factors like government policy changes and a potential decline in interest rates supporting activity. However, there are still challenges, particularly with rental market trends and the potential for increased inventory.

P.S. In today’s market, having an experienced realtor by your side is essential. With over 20 years of experience, Hassenn is here to answer any questions you may have—no obligation, just expert guidance. He can provide a comprehensive assessment of your property and give you a clear picture of your current equity. Feel free to reach out—he’s happy to help!

Disclaimer: This analysis is based on current market trends and may not reflect future market conditions. Please consult with a real estate professional for personalized advice.